Model parameter | Mean (se) | Distribution | Source | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Male | Female | |||
Smoking | ||||
24-week point prevalence rates | ||||
a) intervention – adherent group (n = 236) | 35.2% (4.7%) | 29.8% (4.0%) | Beta | Trial |
b) usual care | 24.2% (3.0%) | 19.7% (2.5%) | Beta | Trial |
Relapse rate from 24 weeks (end of trial) to 12 months | 21% | a | [25] | |
Relapse rates after 12 months | 30% cumulative | a | [26] | |
Lung cancer | ||||
Annual incidence | eg 0.00180b | eg 0.00165b | Beta | [27] |
Proportion – early stage lung cancer (I&II) | 20% | a | [14] | |
Proportion – adv stage lung cancer (III&IV) | 80% | a | [14] | |
Relative risk of lung cancer in ex-smokers vs. general population | eg 1.771 | a | [14] | |
15 years after quittingb | ||||
CVD | ||||
Annual incidence | eg 0.03095b | eg 0.01843b | Beta | [28] |
Relative risk of CVD in smokers vs. general population | 1.42 (0.031) | a | LogNormal | [29] |
Relative risk of CVD in ex-smokers vs. smokers | 0.71 (0.036) | a | LogNormal | [29] |
Mortality | ||||
a) pre-hospital death given a CVD event | 18.1% | a | [30] | |
b) post-hospital death given a CVD event (≤28 days) | 7.1% | a | [30] | |
c) background mortality (annual) | eg 0.01071b | eg 0.00715b | Beta | [31] |
Utility scores | ||||
a) well (no lung cancer or CVD) | ||||
baseline | 0.800 | a | Trial | |
continue smoking after end of trial | 0.800 | a | Assumption | |
abstain from smoking at end of trial | 0.830 | a | [11] | |
b) early stage lung cancer | 0.73 (0.020) | a | Beta | [14] |
adv stage lung cancer | 0.56 (0.043) | a | Beta | [9] |
c) weighted average CVD | 0.611 | |||
Excess health system costs (NZ$) | ||||
a) lung cancer, first year of diagnosis | eg 23,970b | eg 22,256b | Gamma | [13] |
lung cancer, subsequent annual costs before death | eg 5,375b | eg 4,341b | Gamma | [13] |
lung cancer, last six months before cancer death | eg 16,615b | eg 20,300b | Gamma | [13] |
b) CVD, first year of diagnosis if hospitalised | eg 11,327b | eg 10,189b | Gamma | [13] |
CVD, last six months before CVD death | eg 17,573b | eg 11,048b | Gamma | [13] |